The global autonomous vehicle market is a lucrative one. Valued at $158 billion in 2023, this sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 33% over the next decade, reaching $2.75 trillion by 2033. Its development will follow a set of incremental stages (see below), with each stage unlocking massive increases in public safety — and private profits.

Most vehicles on the road today are at Level 0. At some point in the future, most vehicles on the road will be Level 4 or 5. The question is when we will get there, which companies will lead the way, and how bumpy the road will be on the path to Level 4 and 5.

The company currently implementing pure automation at the largest scale is Waymo, which is owned by Google. Its driverless taxis take passengers to their destinations within a few selected major cities in the western United States. Waymo’s operational limitations are significant, however: Its self-driving capabilities are restricted to small areas of the US, their vehicles are expensive to make, and their fleet is of a modest size. The latter issue means that the company can only collect and analyze a relatively small amount of driving data each day, thereby slowing down its iterative software improvement processes.

Other young car companies are also leaning into self-driving software — notably Cruise, Zoox, Xiaomi, and Pony.ai, among others. Rideshare companies like Uber have begun investing in some of these businesses, with the apparent intention of integrating the technology into their own vehicles when practicable.

Self-driving and the law
The financial reward for companies that win in the self-driving market is huge. Early entrants into the self-driving market are likely to face legal challenges that could set industry-shaping precedents. Companies aiming to lead in autonomous driving must carefully navigate these risks, as high-stakes litigation over liability and regulatory compliance will play a critical role in shaping the market.
Who is at fault if and when a fully self-driving car someday causes property damage, as well as injury or death to a passenger or pedestrian? The question will need to be settled through high-stakes litigation at some point in the near future, and most companies would rather be spectators rather than participants during the inevitable courtroom trial that sets the precedent.

Who will spend money lobbying governments to develop sensible licensing and operational regulations for Level 5 self-driving software out in the real world? Who will invest in researching and developing alternative infrastructure that will give self-driving cars the occasional cleaning and maintenance they need while their owners are otherwise occupied at home or at the office?

Only a risk-hungry company with near-bottomless resources and deep political influence would embrace these types of challenges. In other words, Tesla.

The unique political circumstances in the US during this crucial period — notably the alliance between Elon Musk and Donald Trump — seem perfectly arranged to accelerate resolution of these outstanding issues. Tesla will force open the regulatory door with its upcoming (Level 5) Robotaxi and the rapidly improving full self-driving software for its ordinary vehicles, with other companies following swiftly behind.

Other countries, including Thailand, will need to decide how aggressive or cautious they want to be on the question of authorizing self-driving vehicles on their streets. But whether permission is ultimately granted in 2026 or 2030, we are now very likely experiencing the final generation of new cars that don’t feature advanced self-driving software.

Implications of an autonomous world

This rush to successfully develop and implement self-driving software should be cheered on across society. By significantly reducing human error — a leading cause of accidents — this technology has the potential to save countless lives, making roads safer for both pedestrians and passengers. Additionally, it will reduce traffic, ease the strain on parking lots, and enable passengers to make the most of their travel time, whether by working, relaxing, or enjoying entertainment. Freight transport will also become far easier to manage when trucks can drive themselves, solving the problem of driver shortages that are currently plaguing the industry.

Moreover, when autonomous cars can be summoned on demand, they don’t need to remain parked in place until their user wishes to use them. They can go on other errands, pick up and drop off other people, and otherwise stop taking up valuable space when they are not needed. Tesla’s visualization of how autonomous vehicles can change today’s cityscapes is an inspiring one.

Understandably, people traveling on busy streets may hesitate at first to put their lives in the hands of a software algorithm. But most of us will experience Level 2 or 3 self-driving cars before we sit in a fully autonomous vehicle, and we will likely be impressed by how smooth these rides have already become.

It’s worth remembering that airplanes generated similar fears among travelers at first, but now we fly on business trips and holidays without a second thought. Indeed, airplane travel is markedly safer than road travel over the same distance. In the future, we may find ourselves feeling skittish at the prospect of navigating streets inside a manually driven vehicle, given how relatively dangerous they are — and wonder how we ever used to travel that way at all.